How CardMoat Works
CardMoat is a price intelligence tool for Pokemon card collectors and investors. We analyze daily price data from TCGPlayer to generate algorithmic buy/sell signals.
Data Sources
CardMoat pulls price data from two sources, updated daily:
- TCGCSV — Free daily dumps of TCGPlayer market prices for every Pokemon card. This gives us current prices, low/mid/high values, and product metadata.
- JustTCG — Statistical enrichment for top movers: standard deviation, linear regression slope, coefficient of variation, and price position within historical range.
Signal Methodology
Every card gets a composite Value Score (0-100) based on five factors:
| Factor | Weight | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|
| Price Position | 30% | Where the current price sits in its 90-day range (lower = more upside) |
| Momentum | 25% | Weighted trend direction across 7d, 30d, and 90d timeframes |
| Trend Slope | 20% | Whether the 30-day linear regression slope is positive |
| Mean Reversion | 15% | Price near 90d low but showing recovery (buy-the-dip) |
| Breakout | 10% | Recent surge exceeding 2 standard deviations with positive trend |
Signal Labels
| Signal | Criteria |
|---|---|
| Strong Buy | Value Score ≥ 70 and Momentum > +30 |
| Buy | Value Score ≥ 50 and Momentum > 0 |
| Hold | Value Score ≥ 30 (no strong signal in either direction) |
| Sell | Value Score < 30 and Momentum < 0 |
| Strong Sell | Value Score < 20 and Momentum < -30 |
Important Disclaimer
CardMoat is an informational tool, not financial advice. Card values can go down as well as up. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Our signals are algorithmic estimates, not recommendations to buy or sell. Always do your own research before making purchasing decisions.
CardMoat earns a commission on purchases made through TCGPlayer affiliate links. This does not affect our signal calculations or rankings.